Avian influenza
The H5N1 virus remains a disease of birds but is mutating frequently and could mutate into a form against which the human population has no immunity. It will not go away because wild ducks can be infected and pass on the infection to other birds without developing symptoms let alone die and stop the transmission. The resulting pandemic could result in the death rate that appears in press headlines. However it has been around since before 1999 and could does not mean will.
Whilst a flu pandemic is overdue, it might well be from one of the many human flu viruses which are also mutating regularly. In these circumstances there may be background immunity in the population which would reduce the full impact.
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918/19 killed more people than those killed in the First World War. Half the world’s population was infected and 1 in 20 died. Later pandemics were of lesser impact but the outcome of the next pandemic cannot be foretold as it depends on how much the new virus is different to those we have been exposed to before.
News item: 3m doses of untested bird flu vaccine will not arrive in UK until May
Source: The Guardian Date: 07/04/2006
Doses of the H5N1 vaccines, which has been put through some clinical trials, are due to arrive in the UK anytime after May 1st and could be used for staff within the NHS if an avian flu outbreak mutates into a human-borne virus. However, a recent report in 'The Lancet' claimed that there was no evidence that Tamiflu, would work if a flu pandemic took hold in humans. The paper warned that none of the four existing drugs against influenza - Tamiflu, Relenza, amantadine and rimantadine, would have much effect.
News item: Friday 30th December 2005: Avian flu
Is a pandemic of avian flu coming? Read this review of the situation.:
http://general-medicine.jwatch.org/cgi/content/full/2005/1230/1?q=etoc
News item: Saturday 24th January 2004: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)
This strain causing problems in the Far East spreads from birds to man but NOT from man to man. Unless it combines with a human flu virus and starts spreading from person to person it is unlikely to be a significant health hazard in the UK. The transmission is from close contact with a diseased bird. Cooked chicken should pose no threat.
For up to date information visit the WHO Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response site and click on the link for "Avian influenza (H5N1) in humans": http://www.who.int/csr/en/
The Minster Practice, Lichfield
